Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,469$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,682.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(59,682.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,782$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,550.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,550.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,491$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $290,504$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(5.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,491.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(280,491.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,883$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,649.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(42,649.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $244,243$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $253,908$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(8.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239,834.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(239,834.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,403$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,632.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(27,632.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $75,129$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $242,827$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(7.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,266.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,266.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,945$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(9.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,021.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,021.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,303$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,898$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(5.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,043.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(102,043.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,526$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,333.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,333.0\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $69,372$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $208,015$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(5.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{192,187.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(192,187.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,007$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(9.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,065.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,065.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $99,495$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $51,136$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,484.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(48,484.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,156$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,041.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,041.3\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $44,787$ on 2020-07-11
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,611$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(7.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,163.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(25,163.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-07-11
Best fit exponential: \(439 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,695.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,695.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $501$ on 2020-07-11