Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,469$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,682.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(59,682.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,782$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(2.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,550.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,550.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,491$ on 2020-07-11

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $290,504$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(5.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,491.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(280,491.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,883$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,649.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(42,649.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $244,243$ on 2020-07-11

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $253,908$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(8.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{239,834.6}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(239,834.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,403$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,632.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(27,632.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75,129$ on 2020-07-11

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $242,827$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(7.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{235,266.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(235,266.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,945$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(9.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,021.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,021.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,303$ on 2020-07-11

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $74,898$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(5.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,043.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(102,043.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,526$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,333.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,333.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $69,372$ on 2020-07-11

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $208,015$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(5.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{192,187.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(192,187.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,007$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(9.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,065.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,065.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99,495$ on 2020-07-11

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $51,136$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,484.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(48,484.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,156$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,041.3}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,041.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,787$ on 2020-07-11

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,611$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(7.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,163.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(25,163.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(439 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,695.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,695.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $501$ on 2020-07-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Denmark recovered 93%
Italy recovered 88%
Hungary recovered 68%
Belarus recovered 63%
Poland recovered 36%
Russia recovered 14%
Armenia recovered 6%

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,147$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,572.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12,572.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $609$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(209 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{592.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(592.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $260$ on 2020-07-11

Hungary⮸

Population $9,660,351$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,229$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,088.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,088.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $595$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{573.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(573.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $660$ on 2020-07-11

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $64,767$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(5.92 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65,839.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 71.0)}}\) (asimptote \(65,839.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $459$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(51.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{518.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 66.5)}}\) (asimptote \(518.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,389$ on 2020-07-11

Poland⮸

Population $37,846,611$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,521$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(4.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,002.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 70.4)}}\) (asimptote \(40,002.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,568$ on 2020-07-11

Best fit exponential: \(248 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,506.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 56.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,506.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,318$ on 2020-07-11